Blog No. 244. The GOP: Can the Party of Lincoln Return?

When RINOcracy.com got started in 2013, it embraced some heresies from orthodox Republican doctrine that had led some Republicans to refer to others as “RINOs” (Republicans In Name Only). I decided to take that slur and convert it to a badge of honor, but I still considered myself well within the Party that I had belonged to and supported all my life. Now, however, my continued association with the Republican Party is seriously in doubt.

I was among the first to recognize that Trump was utterly unfit to be president and I  called for other Republican candidates to join in excluding him from the initial Republican presidential debate. (Special Bulletin, July 11, 2015.) They, of course, did not do so and the rest, as we say, is history. The three years of Donald Trump’s presidency have been painful for not only RINOs but many traditional Republicans. RINOcracy.com has offered “A Haven for Republicans in Exile,” and that description led me to a metaphor I found encouraging. Charles de Gaulle spent World War II in exile in London, viewing the Vichy regime in France with the contempt it deserved. Yet he remained French throughout, and after the war, he returned to France to write its new constitution France and to become its president.

Yet, as Trump solidified his control of the Republican Party, abandoning its principles along the way, another and quite depressing metaphor came to mind. Long after the end of World War II, a few Japanese soldiers remained hidden on Pacific islands, unaware, or refusing to believe, that the war was over. Could it be that the war for the Republican Party is well and truly over, and that we NeverTrumpers are the equivalent of those Japanese soldiers? That is a grim possibility that cannot be shrugged off, particularly if Trump escapes both impeachment and electoral defeat. Moreover, even if he is mercifully removed from office, the damage he has done will not soon disappear. The Trump base will not necessarily disperse after Trump’s departure, and Trumpism could linger to dominate Republican politics for years to come. In our present situation, it is difficult to think of reclaiming the Republican Party to be the Party of Lincoln. But it is worth thinking about and attempting. And in that spirit, it is worth paying tribute to some who, despite the odds, are still fighting.

Removing Trump by impeachment continues to appear unpromising. The solidarity of Republicans in the Senate seems nearly as uniform as that displayed by Republicans in the House, and little change is in sight. Just now, the issue in the Senate is not whether to convict Trump, but merely whether the Senate should commit itself to hearing witnesses and obtaining documents to illuminate that issue. At the moment, there is a stand-off in the Senate between Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, with the latter demanding a full trial complete with witnesses and documents. Hoping to strengthen Schumer’s hand, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has declined to send the Articles of Impeachment to the Senate until the rules for trial are established. It is unclear how this impasse will be resolved, although McConnell probably has a point suggesting that Pelosi has limited leverage in refusing to deliver something a majority of the Senate doesn’t want to receive.

Thus far, McConnell has maintained effective and tight control over Senate Republicans and has made it clear that he makes no claim to being impartial. A New York Times editorial celebrated the comments of a single Republican Senator, Linda Murkowski, who ventured to express discomfort at McConnell’s servile loyalty to Trump:

In an interview that aired on Christmas Eve, Senator Lisa Murkowski of Alaska told an Anchorage TV station she was “disturbed” by Mr. McConnell’s pledge to coordinate with the president’s legal team. It would be wrong to “prejudge” this matter, she said. “To me, it means that we have to take that step back from being hand in glove with the defense.” Mr. McConnell, she lamented, had “further confused the process.”

The Times proclaimed Senator Murkowski’s comments to be a “Stirring of Conscience in the Senate,” but did not go so far as to claim that her comments would have any actual effect on her colleagues. Outside the Senate, however, there are notable Republicans demanding a legitimate trial with witnesses and documents. One such group is Republicans for the Rule of Law, which includes Charles Fried, Solicitor General in the Reagan administration. As stated on its website, “Republicans for the Rule of Law is a group of life-long Republicans dedicated to defending the institutions of our republic and upholding the rule of law. We are fighting to make sure that the laws apply equally to everyone, from the average citizen to the president of the United States.” The Republicans for the Rule of Law are demanding a full trial in the Senate: running ads in Alaska directed at Murkowski and in the home states of Senators Cory Gardner, Susan Collins, Mitt Romney and Lamar Alexander who are thought to be open to pressure.

Although a conviction in the Senate requires a two thirds majority, questions of rules and the nature of a trial will be decided by a simple majority. Republicans have a 53-47 edge in the Senate and a tie would be broken by Vice President Pence. Thus, if all Democrats voted together, they would need four Republican votes to gain a majority.

Even if Democrats are somehow successful in gaining a full trial, it is far from clear that such a trial will persuade Senate Republicans to convict or to persuade the public to punish Trump at the ballot box. The witnesses identified by Minority Leader Schumer thus far are: John Bolton, former National Security Adviser; Mick Mulvaney, Acting Chief of Staff; Robert Blair, senior adviser to Mulvaney; and Michael Duffey, Associate Director for National Security at the Office of Management and Budget. These witnesses would no doubt have relevant testimony that might be interesting; but it is questionable whether any of them would do much more than reinforce the narrative already disclosed in the hearings before the House Intelligence Committee.

At the same time, Republicans might well press demands for Joe and Hunter Biden and for the whistleblower. Senator Biden initially said that he would ignore a Senate subpoena, but a day later he engaged in Washington’s favorite exercise, walking back, indicating that he would comply, while asserting that there would “no legal basis” for such a subpoena. I believe that if Biden is subpoenaed, he would likely comply and perform adequately, but at the cost of a major distraction to his campaign for the Democratic nomination, and possibly effects that could be felt in the general election.

It can be said for the Democratic strategy that, because they appear to be playing a losing hand in the impeachment struggle, there may be some benefit in shuffling the cards, hoping for improvement in the form of some unpredictable development. One path to unpredictability would be to call Rudy Giuliani, a witness clearly at the heart of Trump’s Ukrainian skullduggery. He is, however, a witness whom both Democrats and Republicans have shown remarkably little interest in calling. It appears that both may regard Giuliani as the “hand-grenade” described by Ambassador Bolton.

If impeachment does not remove Trump, that leaves the election and the election is the focus of another group of conservatives led by George T. Conway III and veteran Republican campaigners, Steve Schmidt. John Weaver and Rick Wilson. Conway is a well-respected conservative and a severe critic of Trump who carries the remarkable burden of being married to Kellyanne Conway, one of Trump’s key advisers and most prominent spokespersons. (Which is not to suggest that Kellyanne’s personal burden in being married to George is any less; indeed, given the temperament of her boss, it is surely even greater.)

An op-ed piece in the New York Times, by Conway and his colleagues was titled “We Are Republicans and We Want Donald Trump Defeated”. Their essay introduced the pointedly named Lincoln Project:

Patriotism and the survival of our nation in the face of the crimes, corruption and corrosive nature of Donald Trump are a higher calling than mere politics. As Americans, we must stem the damage he and his followers are doing to the rule of law, the Constitution and the American character.

That’s why we are announcing the Lincoln Project, an effort to highlight our country’s story and values, and its people’s sacrifices and obligations.

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We look to Lincoln as our guide and inspiration. He understood the necessity of not just saving the Union, but also of knitting the nation back together spiritually as well as politically. But those wounds can be bound up only once the threat has been defeated. So, too, will our country have to knit itself back together after the scourge of Trumpism has been overcome.

Quite so. I urge readers to join me in supporting both Republicans for the Rule of Law and the Lincoln Project.