Whenever it appears that the saga of the Trump administration cannot grow more bizarre, a voice is heard to say, much in the fashion of a late-night TV ad, “But wait, there’s more.” On Monday, the psychodrama of the Kavanaugh confirmation hearings was interrupted by news stories that Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein was on his way to the White House, either to resign or to be fired, and cameras were dutifully positioned to capture his arrival. Media pundits scrambled to find a copy of the Vacancies Act to figure out how and by whom Rosenstein might be replaced and while others speculated on the future of the Mueller investigation. Then it turned out that we would have to wait until Thursday when President Trump and Rosenstein are scheduled to meet. And what a day that will be for cable news. In addition to the Perils of Rosentein, Judge Kavanaugh and his principal accuser, Dr. Christine Blasey Ford, are scheduled to testify before the Senate Judiciary Committee. All in all, it may equal or surpass a good hurricane in viewership. But even before Thursday, still another accuser with an alarming memory of Judge Kavanaugh has now sprung up in the person of one Julie Swetnick, represented by Michael Avenatti, best known as the lawyer for Trump antagonist, Stormy Daniels.
In the meantime, Trump ventured to New York for a speech to the United Nations as aides worried that he might be “overly enthusiastic about engagement with wily adversaries.” In the event, however, Trump’s speech was a fairly routine exercise in jingoistic self-congratulation, as Trump distanced himself from long-time allies and proclaimed, “We reject the ideology of globalism, and we embrace the doctrine of patriotism.” Indeed, the only noteworthy aspect of the speech was the laughter that greeted Trump when he claimed that his administration had “accomplished more than almost any administration in the history of our country.”
Yet, amid all this disarray, Trump joyously tweeted on Tuesday that “Republican Party Favorability is the highest it has been in 7 years – 3 points higher than Democrats! Gallup.” Astonishingly, the tweet was almost accurate. The margin over Democrats is one point, not three, but the Republican rating is the highest since January, 2011. That improvement, however, will not necessarily be reflected in the November elections. As Gallup pointed out, both parties had similar approval ratings in the Fall of 2010 when the GOP registered major gains in the House and Senate as well as state legislatures. According to RealClear Politics polling, the average for the generic Congressional race continues to show an edge for Democrats of 7.7 points, only slightly lower than previous margins, which had exceeded 8 points. Trumps personal approval has increased slightly to 43.8 (with a disapproval rating of 52.4).
The modest improvement in ratings for Republicans and Trump may be quite transitory, but for the moment it will be as heartening to Trump and his supporters as it is mystifying to the rest of us. The most plausible explanation may be that Trump has somehow persuaded a large portion of the country to judge his presidency for its entertainment value rather than its actual accomplishments or the competence of its leader.
Turning to the Kavanaugh confirmation, the hearings give every sign of being a depressing event that will leave none of the participants unscarred– whether Judge Kavanaugh is confirmed or not. That is true most obviously of Kavanaugh himself, but it is also true of the first two complainants, Dr. Christine Blasey Ford and Deborah Ramirez. It is also true of Republicans and President Trump, and possibly even Democrats.
Republicans have now scheduled a Judiciary Committee vote for Friday with a vote by the full Senate expected early next week. Republicans have ruled out an FBI investigation of the charges against Kavanaugh and given no indication that they are prepared to consider objectively his testimony and Dr. Ford’s. If Republicans are successful, Kavanaugh may be confirmed, but confirmation under those circumstances, will put him on the Supreme Court with a tarnish that will last for the duration of his lifetime tenure. That is not in the best interests of Kavanaugh or of the Court. As Benjamin Wittes put it in a widely cited article in the Atlantic:
Clearing one’s name sufficiently to convince only senators who are already ideologically aligned is not, in fact, clearing one’s name. It’s winning. And while winning may be the highest value for Trump, it isn’t actually the highest value—particularly for a justice.
If Kavanaugh is innocent, he would have been better advised to endorse the call for an FBI investigation. Neither President Trump nor Senate Republicans have offered any persuasive reason for not asking the FBI to investigate, just as the agency did in the case of the allegations made during the confirmation hearings for Justice Clarence Thomas. Admittedly, such an investigation might fail to provide definitive answers—as it did in the case of the Thomas nomination—but it would demonstrate a refreshing interest in getting as close to the truth as possible. And if the investigation turned up no support for the allegations against Kavanaugh, that would surely strengthen the nominee’s position.
Dr. Ford and Ms. Ramirez have already paid a price for their disclosures. Two days after Ford’s name became public, her lawyer wrote to Judiciary Committee Chairman Charles Grassley that Ford’s life had been turned upside down:
She has been the target of vicious harassment and even death threats. As a result of these kind of threats, her family was forced to relocate out of their home. Her email has been hacked, and she has been impersonated online.
There can be little doubt that Deborah Ramirez, who has accused Kavanaugh of exposing himself to her at a party in a Yale dormitory, will have a similar experience. Whatever the outcome for Kavanaugh, the lives of both women will never be the same. To suggest that they sacrificed their own privacy for reasons of partisan politics is as unseemly as it is unconvincing.
Initially, Republicans maintained a facade of willingness to withhold judgment until Dr. Ford and Judge Kavanaugh had testified. Even President Trump was restrained for a few days before tweeting last Friday:
I have no doubt that, if the attack on Dr. Ford was as bad as she says, charges would have been immediately filed with local Law Enforcement Authorities by either her or her loving parents. I ask that she bring those filings forward so that we can learn date, time, and place.
Inevitably, that clumsy attack would soon be followed with more tweets in a similar mode.
After the Ramirez allegations were made public in a New Yorker article on Sunday, Senate Republicans became openly aggressive in dismissing Kavanaugh’s accusers and insisting on a quick vote on his nomination. As summarized by the Associated Press:
Republicans mounted a combative, coordinated drive Monday to salvage Brett Kavanaugh’s Supreme Court nomination as they fought to keep a second woman’s allegation of long-ago sexual misconduct from derailing his confirmation. President Donald Trump leapt to his defense, the top Senate Republican accused Democrats of a “smear campaign” and an emotional Kavanaugh pledged to fight for his nomination and proclaimed, “I’ve never sexually assaulted anyone.”
That declaration, remarkable for a nominee to the nation’s highest court, came as Republicans embraced their newly aggressive stance and Kavanaugh’s prospects dangled precariously. The similar tones and wording they used in defending him suggested a concerted effort to undermine the women’s claims and portray an image of unity among GOP senators while pressing toward a confirmation vote.
Democrats are not blameless in this unhappy state of affairs, and the conduct of Senator Feinstein in particular seems hard to justify. There is no doubt that Democrats have sought to weaponize the statements of Dr. Ford and Ms. Ramirez for partisan purposes after other attempts to delay or derail the Kavanaugh nomination were unsuccessful. That fact, however, does not justify the attempts to dismiss their claims as merely “smears” cooked up by Democrats. Plainly, they are not.
So far as Republicans are concerned, there are many disturbing aspects to their conduct. Among other things, they have given an appearance of continued insensitivity to women’s claims of sexual assault or sexual harassment (possibly attributable in some cases to a sense of “There but for the grace of God go I.”) Perhaps even more disheartening are convincing reports that Republicans’ hurried rush to judgment does not spring primarily from admiration for Kavanaugh as a person, his skill as a judge or his conservative ideology. Rather it is rooted in the fear that a failure to confirm Kavanaugh will be so dispiriting to the Republican base that it will cost Republican candidates the support of that base in the midterm elections. As a political judgment, that is questionable, but as a matter of political morality it is unacceptable. Reasonable people might disagree on the merits of the Kavanaugh nomination, but concern for its impact on midterm elections is a rationale so rancid that it has no precedent in previous confirmation battles.
Senator McConnell has stated flatly that he has the votes to confirm Kavanaugh, and perhaps he does, but this opera may not be over. If Dr. Ford makes a compelling presentation on Thursday, and Judge Kavanaugh should stumble, or if the other accusers appear credible, a few Republicans might summon the courage to insist on an FBI investigation before proceeding to a final vote. That is a narrow path to honor for the Republican Party, but one that is not yet foreclosed.
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This is less a comment on Doug’s last blog – which I thought was excellent – than it is my reaction to the Kavanaugh hearings yesterday.
I listened to Dr Ford, sometimes close to tears, and then felt the world had turned upside down all afternoon.
I was horrified by Kavanaugh’s rage, his lack of control, and his partisan, nasty, and inaccurate attacks.
I thought he lied about some of his silly yearbook comments, and shamelessly ducked the issues of an FBI investigation, and whether he would like his friend Judge to testify. I agree with one commentator who said his performance resembled a temper tantrum.
It will be hard for me to believe that he can be counted on to perform his future judicial duties objectively.
And yet it seems pretty clear Kavanaugh will be involved in making decisions that will critically influence the lives of Americans for many years. Shameful.
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