On July 21, The New York Times published a for-subscribers-only newsletter, “The Tilt,” in which it analyzed the support of Donald Trump. For “anti-Trump Republicans,” and former Republicans who have fled to the Democratic Party, it made somewhat depressing reading.
Some 37% of Republicans are identified as the MAGA base, while another 37% are identified as “persuadable” Trump voters:
[They are voters] who do not love Mr. Trump, but who remain open to him in the primary and in some cases support him over the alternatives. It’s a group that’s broadly reflective of the Republican electorate as a whole: It’s somewhat conservative, somewhat favorable toward Mr. Trump, somewhat favorable toward Mr. DeSantis, and split on whether to support the former president, at least for now.
Alas, only one quarter of Republicans were found to be firmly anti-Trump:
These voters tend to be educated, affluent, moderate, and they’re often more than just Trump skeptics. A majority of these voters view him unfavorably, say he’s committed crimes and don’t even back him in the general election against President Biden, whether that’s because they actually prefer Mr. Biden or simply wouldn’t vote.
Personally, I am embarrassed by the fact that, as recently as three years ago, I was still a Republican. I was, to be sure, a heretic from party orthodoxy on some important matters including abortion and gun control. Hence, I was, in the eyes of some, a RINO—Republican In Name Only—a label I did not initially agree with but proudly adopted in 2013. During Donald Trump’s presidency, I was an unsparing critic of both his personage and his administration. Nevertheless, I continued to value my ties to the Party that had been a political home all my life and had inspired me to serve in the Nixon and Ford administrations.
In maintaining my association with the Republican Party throughout the Trump presidency, I theorized that opposition to Trump might be more effective coming from within his Party. I could not, however, sustain that position beyond November 2020. After Trump was defeated, it quickly became clear that his toxic spirit had not been exorcised from the Republican Party, and that his grip on the Party was stronger than ever. So, I became a Democrat and I looked on from that vantage point as Trump’s defeat morphed into the Big Lie that carried along tens of millions of his willfully delusional supporters.
Today, the Republican Party has been warped beyond all recognition, at least in my eyes and the eyes of many others. It has somehow been transformed into a cult, organized around the single, bizarre figure of Donald Trump. The indictments of Trump already filed, and those that are certain to follow, have perversely appeared to strengthen his hold over the Republican Party. Nearly all of the Republicans who are announced candidates—Chris Christie is the honorable exception—are attempting the delicate minuet of attempting to define themselves as different from Trump but doing so without offending his base of deplorables. This troupe of dancing midgets appear to have no hope of redemption unless, perhaps, Trump is not only convicted but incarcerated.
Even if Trump is incarcerated, and is not reelected, he would probably retain much of his support. In addition, it appears that he would not lose the ten years of Secret Service protection the law provides for a former president. Indeed, he might need it more than ever. Would the Secret Service take up positions in adjoining cells? It might all have the makings of an entertaining musical on Broadway, but it is not so amusing to live through it in real time.
Until Republicans, including those who would like again to proudly call themselves Republicans, acknowledge that, unlike many Republicans and Republican leaders, there are no Democratic leaders inciting violence, or saying that violence is justified, the Republican Party should not regain eligibility to be the other party in a two-party system. The fact of the matter is Republicans now care only about holding power, regardless of the means necessary. They should never be allowed back into power until they unequivocally renounce violence in our politics and embrace democratic norms, free and fair elections, and unstifled voting rights for all citizens. It is a complete cop out to state or even imply that Trump alone is the problem – too many card-carrying Republicans favored violent means before Trump and will continue to do so after Trump.
Doug,
Great piece as always. I’m sad…and frankly, scared.
Speaking as a “moderate” Democrat, I am also considered a “heretic” on some issues (like law-and-order), and therefore value the conservative influence of Republicans; indeed, I’ve voted for several over the years. But Trump’s GOP is the opposite of “conservative;” it’s anarchistic, determined to nullify the rule of law (violently if necessary), in service to his personal greed, whims, and insatiably needy ego.
I pray that you & other principled Republicans/former Republicans can figure out how to wrest the GOP back from Trump’s “willfully delusional” cultists; I don’t know how, but our country needs you.
What is most scary about the indictment over Trump’s attempt to use any depth of depravity to stay in office is that—even if he is found guilty on all counts—he would probably be free to serve as our president (if elected).To me, that is unfathomable! Thank you, Doug, for your thoughtful columns. I believe each of us has to commit to electing the Democratic candidate in 2024 and hurl Trump another ignominious defeat.
Very well said, Doug. The Trump Charade, and his capture of the GOP leadership and a majority of Republican voters is both depressing and hard to understand. I long for a return of the US having a functional two party system, but the extremes on both sides seem to have taken over, in spite of the more moderate bent that most citizens typically hold. In this scenario, negotiation and compromise are impossible, and democracy is endangered. Will our nation regain its footing? Trump’s influence is likely to outlive his reign, and the dark shadow he has cast is intense and vast. The wise, strong national leader needed to guide us out of the current wilderness, unfortunately, doesn’t seem to yet be in sight.
Your post accurately portrays my views and thoughts completely. I was a staunch Barry Goldwater Republican – fiscally conservative and socially liberal. Todays “Republican” party in no way mirrors my views.
Thank you again
Historically this country has been a successful two party system. In recent years the differences and acrimony has become more prevalent, reaching even higher levels. Perhaps your readers are thirsting for input and/or suggestions on how the GOP can regroup and return to the greatness you once supported?
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