Blog No. 279. Capitol Follies

I changed my registration from Republican to Democrat immediately after the November election. If Trump and his enablers had suffered a massive rejection that included Republicans and Independents as well as Democrats, I would have remained in the Party to have a small voice in shaping its future. But that did not happen, and indeed Trump insisted that he had actually won. And when that brazen claim was swallowed by a majority of Republicans, it was clear the game was over. Each day that followed, up to January 6 and beyond, provided further evidence that I had no place in the Republican Party. While some have said that there is a battle for the soul of the Republican Party, I am afraid the battle is over and the soul is gone.

I do have pangs of sympathy for Republicans who remain in the Party doing battle with Trump. Their ranks notably include Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger in the House and Mitt Romney, Ben Sasse, Susan Collins, and Lisa Murkowski in the Senate. But their limited number and waning influence is not sufficient to hold or reclaim my identity as a Republican. In that connection am still pondering whether and how to re-title this blog. I have grown fond of “RINOcracy.com” and, like any true conservative, I am wary of change. One possibility is to explain that RINO now stands for “Republicans In Nostalgia Only” and replace the subtitle “A Haven for Republicans in Exile” with “Notes from a Cranky Moderate.” Readers will have vastly more important things to think about, but if you happen to have any vagrant suggestions, I would welcome them.

My cranky moderate side is reflected in some inevitable discomforts I have encountered in my new home in the Democratic Party. On the whole, I have been well-impressed by Biden’s appointments, and I think that, for the most part, his executive orders have been a well-justified unraveling of Trump’s executive actions. I do, however, have concerns about his legislative proposals and his threat to execute one of them by means of the Senate’s “reconciliation” procedure.

With that introduction, a little further explanation.

Republicans

To borrow a phrase from Rachel Maddow, the current Republican Party is a dumpster fire. As most readers may recall, RINOcracy.com had a regular feature, Trump New Lows Tracker, which I closed just before the election. I have no thought of reviving it, but I am now tempted to create a Republican Party New Lows Tracker.

Looking at just the last few days, on Wednesday a majority of Republican Senators (all but five) voted to cut off the impeachment proceeding without going further. Unfortunately, that majority included Minority Leader Mitch McConnell who had previously been sharply critical of Trump (“The mob was fed lies. They were provoked by the President and other powerful people.”) and had indicated that he was undecided on impeachment. The Republican vote confirmed my sense that impeachment was probably not a sound strategy, but on its own terms, the vote was inexcusable.

Then, on Thursday, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy made a trip to Mar-a-Lago to kiss Trump’s, er, ring. McCarthy had previously said quite explicitly that Trump bore responsibility for the Capitol insurrection, but that observation had drawn Trump’s wrath and was now airbrushed away. According to a readout of the “cordial” meeting between Trump and McCarthy, provided by Trump’s Political Action Committee Save America:

They discussed many topics, number one of which was taking back the House in 2022. President Trump’s popularity has never been stronger than it is today, and his endorsement means more than perhaps any endorsement at any time.

While Trump’s popularity in the Republican Party remains considerable, it is diminished there and has reached new lows with everyone else; hence the value of his endorsement is highly questionable. Even in the 2020 election, down ballot Republicans fared conspicuously better than Trump did—and that was before his grotesque maneuvers leading up to January 6. Trump’s blessing may help some of his enablers avoid primary challenges, but in general elections it is likely to do them more harm than good.

In the meantime, there is the matter of Marjorie Taylor Greene, the QAnon supporter from Georgia, newly elected to Congress. I will spare readers a tour of Ms. Greene’s many bizarre pronouncements, but several are collected in a New York Times article, “Marjorie Taylor Greene’s Controversies Are Piling Up. Republicans Are Quiet.”

Greene’s various utterances are sufficiently beyond the pale that a spokesman for Kevin McCarthy found them “deeply disturbing” and said that Mr. McCarthy planned to “have a conversation” with her about them. For her part, Ms Greene remains undaunted and continues to boast of Trump’s backing. In the course of a vituperative rant on Twitter she asserted:

I had a GREAT call with my all time favorite POTUS, President Trump! I’m so grateful for his support and more importantly the people of this country are absolutely 100% loyal to him because he is 100% loyal to the people and America First.

Not surprisingly, Democrats feel that a conversation with Kevin McCarthy is hardly a solution to the Greene problem. If they seek to expel Greene from Congress, that effort will fail, but they may profit from the failure. As long as Greene is in Congress, Democrats may find that she is a gift that keeps on giving. Republicans have devoted a good deal of time, effort and money in attempting to portray Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez as the poster child of the Democratic Party, and they have had some success. But while I would differ with AOC on many matters, she is a pillar of civic virtue compared to Greene.

Democratic campaigns in 2022 that concentrate fire on Trump, January 6 and Marjorie Taylor Greene will not lack for ammunition. Nevertheless, Democrats will also have to demonstrate their ability to govern. As to that, there are helpful signs but also storm clouds. While Biden is off to an impressive start in many respects, there are grounds for concern about his legislative proposals for Covid Relief and immigration.

Democrats

Covid Relief. It is troubling that Biden appears willing to use the Senate’s budgetary “reconciliation” procedure without first attempting serious negotiations with Republicans. Biden has repeatedly emphasized the importance of unity and bipartisanship, and while those are important goals, they cannot be achieved simply by calling for them. Bipartisan support comes with a price, and that price is making concessions to the other side. Proceeding through the reconciliation procedure to pass legislation with no Republican support should be a last resort. It will undermine the central claim of Biden’s presidency: that he can heal the country  by mitigating the aura of bitter partisanship hanging over the capitol.

Both Biden and Majority Leader Schumer may be willing to make concessions, but neither established a framework for doing so by way of negotiations with Republicans. On Sunday, ten Republican Senators, led by Susan Collins, stepped into that breach. In a letter to President Biden, they outlined a compromise plan that will reportedly have an estimated cost of approximately $600 billion. While the Republicans’ initiative initially received a cool reception from members of the Biden administration, Biden reacted more positively. In their letter, Republicans asked to meet with the President, and by Sunday evening, Biden had issued an invitation for a meeting early this week. The sizeable dollar difference between the parties will make reaching a compromise very difficult, but the meeting may be at least a start.

Immigration. In the case of immigration, I expressed surprise that Biden would give early priority to a comprehensive proposal in such a difficult and controversial area. I did suggest that one element of the proposal, relief for Dreamers, might draw bipartisan support, and it appears that Senator Dick Durbin is proceeding accordingly. As reported in the Hill:

“There are some things I think are likely to be included and some things which will be too much of a reach,” said Senate Majority Whip. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.), the incoming Judiciary Committee chairman, about Biden’s plan.

Instead, Durbin is planning to start with a smaller issue that already has bipartisan support — the so-called dreamers — when he and Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) re-introduce their DREAM Act legislation during the first week of February.

The bill is expected to mirror legislation they’ve offered previously, which extended permanent residency, and eventual citizenship, to immigrants brought into the country illegally as children who meet certain work and education requirements.

Durbin said he views the bipartisan measure as the starting point for larger negotiations about a bill that could get 60 votes in the Senate, the amount needed to overcome a filibuster. If every Democrat voted for an immigration bill, it would still need the support of 10 GOP senators to advance.

Whether the Durbin/Graham initiative leads to broader negotiations on other immigration issues remains to be seen. I would urge, however, that relief for the Dreamers not be held hostage to resolution of such other issues. Just getting something passed and signed into law for the Dreamers would be a significant and long overdue achievement. On the other hand, while I also support a path to citizenship for most of the aliens without legal status, that (and several other elements of the Biden proposal) may be a bridge too far right now.

Broadly speaking, the Biden administration and Democrats in Congress need to proceed with keen eyes on the 2022 elections. If they can bring to those elections a record of bipartisan accomplishment, even of modest dimensions, they will have a good chance of retaining and even improving the narrow control they currently have in both houses of Congress. Conversely, if they focus on sweeping measures that excite progressives but go nowhere, they risk losing even that control.