June is a time for anniversaries, and Sunday, June 16, marked the fourth anniversary of Donald Trump’s 2015 announcement that he was a candidate for the presidency. Now, on Tuesday, June 18, Trump is celebrating that anniversary by announcing his candidacy for re-election in 2020. In reality, the Trump Campaign has never stopped. Throughout his presidency, Trump has sought to bolster his own morale by appearing at rallies of adoring followers who were impervious to the scandals and failures of his administration as well as his bizarre personal behavior. Still, the anniversary of Trump’s initial campaign and the launch of a “new” campaign provide a fitting moment for a brief retrospective and a speculative glance at what may lie ahead.
By way of looking back, and as a historical footnote, I have reproduced below the first blog of RINOcracy.com to comment on the Trump candidacy. Reading that blog today yields a feeling of humility but also a smidgen of pride. The source of the humility is obviously the fact that, like practically everyone else, I had woefully underestimated Trump’s unique talent as a political campaigner. Also like many others, I had little clue as to the depth and breadth of the varied resentments, anxieties and fears that would become the engine of Trump’s electoral victory. There were, of course, other factors that would contribute to his victory: Hillary Clinton’s personal baggage and sculpting of an inept campaign, FBI Director Comey’s late announcement of a reopening of the Clinton email investigation and, perhaps, the nefarious helping hand from Trump’s curious soulmate, Vladimir Putin. None, however, was as significant as the pervasive and often acute angst of what would become, and still remains today, the Trump Base.
The smidgen of pride arises from the fact that I had, before many others, a sense of the devastation that Trump would wreak on the values of the country and the Republican Party. When I urged that other Republicans candidates take a radical step, and decline to appear on a debate stage with Trump, I harbored no illusions that they would hear my suggestion, let alone heed it. If they had, however, there is considerable reason to believe that the world would be a better and safer place today. Certainly the Republican Party would have a far stronger claim to play a competent and constructive role in our country’s governance. That is a stature we are quite unlikely to regain while Trump remains in office.
Viewing Trump today, there are some grounds for optimism. Although the economy remains strong, Trump’s claim for credit is debatable and the rewards to his base skimpy at best; he has fulfilled few of his campaign promises, and he has little to point to as accomplishments, either foreign or domestic. Trump has just fired three pollsters for bringing him (and, worse yet, leaking) the bad news that he is trailing Joe Biden by significant margins in many key states. The latter event is heartening news, but should not be given undue weight. With the election 16 months away, much may happen in the interval, and Democrats will have many opportunities to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
One pitfall for Democrats may be to embark on a quest to impeach Trump that has little or no chance of a conviction in the Senate and removal from office. I respect, and have some sympathy for, the argument that when confronted with grounds for impeachment, there is a moral and constitutional duty to proceed without regard to political consequences. Nevertheless, I disagree. I believe that removal of Trump from office is the overriding imperative, morally as well as politically, and I fear that an unsuccessful impeachment might make it more difficult to remove him at the ballot box. That is admittedly far more hunch than analysis, though it apparently comports with the view of Nancy Pelosi, whose political instincts are hard to discount, and who has sought to slow down the rush to impeachment within her ranks.
Other pitfalls on the road to 2020 may appear if the Democratic Party seeks to fashion itself in the mold of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez or even Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren who covet her approval. For example, the “Green New Deal” and “Medicaid for All” may have admirable goals, but many voters will be wary of programs that would stand the country on its head in attempting to reach them. And, after four years of Donald Trump, voters are most likely to prefer a candidate who will not only restore some dignity to the office, but who will speak in a robust but calm voice that is optimistic and unifying rather than angry and divisive.
On immigration, Democrats will have much to attack in the heartless incompetence of the Trump Administration, but must avoid being labeled as the party of “open borders.” (It would help if they could come up with some constructive ideas on how to handle the situation at our southern border.) Democrats may favor increased taxes to pay for increased spending on infrastructure or other projects, but must recognize that at some point increasing taxes will risk damaging the economy (and that increased spending without increased taxes carries its own risks). Democrats have a number of relatively moderate candidates who are well qualified and experienced in working across party lines. One of these candidates should be able to attract the support of centrist independents and disaffected Republicans—the question is whether Democrats will make such a choice.
After that hesitant look at the future, I invite you to make a brief return to 2015.
Special Bulletin, July 11, 2015.
We like to think that we take a realistic view of the world but we have to admit that we have been in denial on the subject of Donald Trump. We have not mentioned his candidacy in the naïve hope that it would disappear on its own. It is now clear that is not going to happen. We still believe that it is highly unlikely that Trump will become the Republican nominee, but there is an increasingly serious question as to how much embarrassment and damage he will do to the Republican Party along the way. Our answer is, too much.
We are not alone in having attempted to ignore the Trump candidacy but are now appreciating its danger. As The Wall Street Journal wrote:
We had vowed not to write about Donald Trump, but Democrats and the media are so eager to use the political apprentice to define conservatism that we can’t avoid it. He won’t win a GOP caucus or primary, but he is notable as a Democratic weapon against Republicans.
The focus of the editorial was Hillary Clinton’s efforts, just beginning, to identify the Republican Party with Trump. But who can blame Secretary Clinton for seeking to pluck such low-hanging fruit?
Lengthy articles in The Washington Post (“GOP leaders fear damage to party’s image as Donald Trump doubles down”) and The New York Times (“Can’t Fire Him: Republican Party Frets Over What to Do With Trump”) have explored the problem in some depth. Matters were brought to a boil by Trump’s nasty comments about Mexican immigrants, but more outrageous pronouncements on that and other subjects will follow as surely as day the night.
If any further focus were required, it will be provided by the initial Republican debate in August. As Peggy Noonan observed:
Mr. Trump’s loquacity will be a challenge in the debates. How will anyone get a word in edgewise? Candidates will rely on the moderator. The moderator may amuse himself by stepping back and watching the fun. None of the candidates will want to take Mr. Trump head-on because he doesn’t play within the margins of traditional political comportment. He’s a squid: poke him and get ink all over you.
He has the power of the man with nothing to lose. If he won he’d be president. If he loses he’s Donald Trump, only a little more famous. His next show will get even higher ratings.
Ms. Noonan may, if anything, understate the gravity of the situation. The August debate could be a defining moment in the 2016 race before it has truly begun. And it could be a definition that the Party cannot survive in that election.
It is clear that other Republican candidates and “leaders” have, as our British friends would put it, their knickers in a twist about what to do. That is unnecessary. The answer is obvious, not easy perhaps, but obvious: every other Republican candidate should decline to appear on a debate stage with Trump. Acting individually, they would fear alienating Trump supporters, but acting collectively they should be able to summon the courage to do the right thing. One or two, say Senator Cruz, might insist on showing up, but we could live with that.
Some have expressed a worry that if rejected decisively by Republicans, Trump might attempt to run as third-party candidate, but we believe that is a small risk and one well worth taking. It is also possible that, even without a third-party candidacy, some portion of the Republican base attracted to Trump might decide to “stay home.” Nevertheless, we suspect that for every such vote that is thereby lost, two or more would be gained from voters impressed by the Party’s surprising ability to take a difficult but principled stand. In short, we call on our Party to “Dump the Trump” and to do it sooner rather than later. Bumper stickers, anyone?
Having valued and enjoyed reading Rinocracy posts and comments since its inception, sharing in what I sense is its major thrust, that the Republican Party has been on the wrong track since the emergence of the radical right into dominance, and that the party’s decent has been greatly accelerated since Trump’s takeover, I find with the approach of the next election that the well informed discussions are especially important and timely, most notably when avoiding the sweeping generalizations, insults, and lack of concrete issue discussions that are so common in these divisive days. Dissenting and diverse opinions are informative and valuable too, giving a clear indication of the realities that internally torment and divide our nation. Clear understanding of the issues and opposition is essential, let the discussions roll on, and here’s to the full electorate determining the direction of the nation in the upcoming election. Hopefully we’ll all be accepting of the results, whether personally approving or not.
It appears to me that the American people are hungering for solutions to a myriad of problems that have been festering for a long time and for which there are no easy solutions, e.g.
– The failure of our economic system
to produce good-paying jobs for the
majority of working people
– The failure of our educational
system to produce capable people
to fill those jobs
– The impediments to a healthy, well
balanced economy and good
standard of living for most off our
people, including inadequate pay
and excessive living costs
– The failure of our political system
to produce good government
In short, I believe our country is in decline and there is no consensus on how to reverse that trend. So most presidential candidates speak in vague generalities, playing on the hopes or fears of the electorate. “Make America Great Again”
“Build a Wall” “Free College Tuition”
“Medicare for All” ”Axis of Evil” “Hope”
There is nothing new in such slogans (eg “The New Frontier” “Shining City on a Hill” “The New Deal“ “The Great Society” “A Chicken in Every Pot”). But they take on greater urgency in times like ours. Times when people see their living standards going down, mass shootings, the failure of “democracy” to produce good government, the breakdown of traditional institutions, etc.
It is in such times that governments totter, wars break out, child malnutrition and famine become widespread. Albert Camus’s, “The Plague” falls upon us.
I fear that we are witnessing the beginning of a new Dark Age that no one may be able to prevent. Of course, people who support Donald Trump will be its first victims. But no matter who sits in the White House, worse times appear to lie ahead. Particularly in a culture where money is king any it’s each man for himself.
Only a brilliant and charismatic leader might be able to win the hearts of most Americans, both in and out of government, and thus bring about truly constructive change.
Even then, however, I believe our federal Constitution is an antiquated, deeply flawed document that stands in the way of progress. Perhaps the only real solution is to call another Constitutional Convention and start over again.
Thomas Jefferson wrote that the Constitution was not intended to be a sacred document, and that perhaps it should be redrawn every five years.
The bedrock principles in the Declaration of Independence would, of course, remain unchanged.
I remember that first blog well, urging the other GOP candidates not to take the stage with Trump in the first debate.
I don’t know who Messrs. Hook and Holquin are, or where they live (or have lived), or what they do/did for a living, but Trump has obviously succeeded in conning them.
Trump is only a few years older than I am, and I lived in NYC as a young woman when Trump started “making the scene.” It was obvious that he was a publicity-hungry con-man even back then, but there’s never been a shortage of such types in NYC, so it was easy to shrug-him-off. Meanwhile the really “heavy-hitters” in NYC real estate (except for Leona Helmsley, the female version of Trump) tended to keep a relatively low public profile, while making actual hundreds-of-millions/billions (not Trumped-up hundreds-of-millions/billions). Word was that the big-hitters tended to dismiss Trump as a small-player in their world, and as someone with whom they would have no reason to do business. “All show and no go.”
But I must admit that the “show” worked. Trump may not have conned NYC’s savviest real estate developers, and he famously flopped as a casino operator, but he succeeded as a self-proclaimed celebrity on a Reality TV Show, and like the various Kardashians, developed an inexplicable (to me) following. It has been the greatest shock in my 69 years of life to reckon with the fact that my fellow-citizens could have elected Trump as our already-great country’s President…but I have to live with the fact that he’s conned a lot of people in addition to Messrs. Hook and Holquin.
Keep on blogging, Doug…you “Thumpian” denier!
Hi Monica. I ask myself the same question. What does his election say about our culture? When is it time to leave and where to? Best. -Roger
Your review was basically correct with definite restraint on Trump’s character as defined by CNN and MNBC. Only once did you slip into Trump Deranged Syndrome by connecting Trump with Putin.
We are now learning that Putin through the Steele dossier paid by Clinton and the DNC completely hoodwinked FBI and DOC top officials to use illegal means and gullible media to promote removal from office or impeachment. Is Nancy Pelosi the only one to not look under the impeachment rock? There are a lot of deep state worms wiggling there. I like The Donald’s advice to them, “You guys had better lawyer up!” He does have a unique turn of phrase.
I’m off to Alaska on a train ride and cruise for 11 days. Hold the fort and keep us out of war. My grandson just became a captain in the U.S. Army.
There are Thumpian deniers and then there are Trumpian deniers but this blog takes the cake. The “heartless incompetence of the Trump Administration” is the most ridiculous statement I have seen from it. The US economy is at an unprecedented high, Mexico just agreed to take strong action against the million illegal immigrations crossing our border each year, his actions against China are starting to have a notable affect on their economy (and ours to a certain extent, but necessary), NAFTA has been renegotiated, Venezuela is reeling and those are only the successes that come to mind at the moment. Compare that to those of the Obama administration: Obama Care that accomplished nothing that it promised including “if you like your doctor you can keep your doctor”, its surge in troops to Afghanistan that accomplished nothing, the fall of Libya, the all mighty Iran deal that gave pallets of money to some of the worst actors in the World, the pullout of our troops from Iraq that directly led to the surge of ISIS that cost so many more lives to be lost in the Middle East. Trump accomplishment have come in just two years whereas Obama had eight to accomplish his impressive list.
RINOcracy.com welcomes dissenting opinions, and I accept your offer of a cake. Angel Food, please.
Perhaps he has achieved a few successes but they pale alongside his daily failures. No president can take credit for a strong economy. But if you’re paying attention, our economy is not working for a majority of the American people. Furthermore, Trump’s confrontational approach (tariffs, threats of war, denigration of our allies, repudiation of NATO, support for Brexit, etc) has caused far more harm than good. The top automakers have urged that he not weaken pollution controls or impose tariffs on steel, soybean farmers are going broke due to his tariff war with China; Wall Street is fearful of Trump’s every move. How can such a smart man as yourself believe that Trump has been a good president? And, regardless of what you believe, stop blaming his predecessor for the problems people have with Trump.
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